the other night i watched the republican debate on foreign policy. i know what you're thinking -
this is gonna be one of his political blogs. well, yes. deal with it. and honestly i won't get too far into it. i recently posted something about Iran on my facebook and it erupted into a huge ordeal as facebook posts tend to do. anyway, the whole thing got me thinking about a theory i have. full disclosure - i didn't come up with this one. i got it from a former boss years ago, however i have modified it a bit. i gave it a new paint job, spoiler and installed a new stereo.
my political views. narcissist much?
my theory isn't necessary a republican or democrat belief. however it's a philosophical foundation that can make or break certain aspects of foreign policy from both parties. ok here it goes:
A nation's leadership and government is, for the most part, a reflection of what the people want and deserve based on their culture as a whole.
another way to say it is that in the same way that the unseen market forces of supply and demand determine the price of goods, so do the values of a given culture or nation determine the type of government and leaders they have.
this may seem counter-intuitive. for instance, probably half the people reading this voted for obama and the other half didn't - statistically speaking. but i'm not talking about minor differences between a republican or democrat. we as americans put a high value on life, personal liberties and self reliance, therefore we have a government system that has more protections of those values than any other country. our presidents may disagree on a few things, but they're all relatively the same compared to leaders of other countries. and what's funny is how the problems of the nation are so similar to the problems of individual citizens. americans are up to their ears in credit card debt while at the same time the nation is trillions of dollars in debt. our nation worries about health care while we as individuals are the fattest we've ever been (myself included).
europeans have similar values, and thus, similar style governments and leaders - usually elected, well spoken leaders wearing suits (as opposed to military garb) making decisions about trade rules and arcane social issues. however in societies when human life and personal liberties are valued less, you typically find more oppressive regimes with military dictators whose strength, while derived from their ruthlessness, is also what holds the country together. look at sadaam hussein. if you study anything about him, it becomes clear that he was very cut-throat and bludgeoned his way into power. however, iraq has for a long time been divided between different sects of islam so it's no wonder a military baathist dictator was the only thing that could keep order. and from a culture that sanctions "honor killings" as a normal way of life, it's no surprise they tolerated hussein using mustard gas on his own citizens.
if a leader of government grows too far out of step with what a culture wants, they rise up. it's as natural as water seeking the lowest place. some people would have us believe that whole countries are being held hostage by a certain political leader but this is false. a leader derives his power from the people he leads. and while he may be able to stretch how far they're willing to let him go for a time, eventually they will rise up for change when needed.
some of the worst dictatorships are those in tribal africa. how much of a coincidence is it that they are in countries with different tribes constantly at war with each other amoung people who regularly commit atrocities to their neighbors. when the local pillars of a society are telling the people that the only way to get rid of AIDS is to rape an infant, is it really a surprise that a leader like Mugabe exists?
there is a lot of beauty in different cultures, but not all cultures are equal. some value human life more than others. some are decidedly more evil, and their government and leadership are just an extension of those values.
so that's my theory. the real test is in the application of that theory. for instance, take the concept of spreading democracy to other nations. over the centuries, euro and american culture evolved into democracies because it was what their values demanded. it happened naturally. and while certain monarchies worked hard to hold it back, in the end there was nothing they could do to hold the tide of democracy back. if democracy is what a country wants, then it WILL have it. it might take a few years, but it WILL happen. the whole notion of american troops going into a country that has, by all means, chosen a different system, and we think we can change their culture as well as government to match our own is a bit ridiculous. why are military generals afraid to pull out of iraq and afghanistan? because they know the people are just going to go back to the way it was before.
for years our CIA has aided certain political figures in the middle east in their rise to power. these same leaders have essentially been puppets of the american government. and although it has worked out for us for a few decades, eventually the people and the culture get what they want. look at what's been happening with the whole arab spring thing?? our puppet in egypt has been replaced by a leader that represents the people and their beliefs. the same can be said for syria. our CIA helped prop up a puppet leader in Iran in the 60s, but eventually the people rose up and now they have a state run by sharia law. and i believe in the next decade or so we will see a transition to a more westernized way. and how? consumerism. young muslims love western culture - video games, music, movies. i mean, who wouldn't? but the difference here is that the shift (when it does eventually happen) will happen because that shift was in the hearts and minds of the people, not just because a new leader was installed.
i'm not saying this to side with either political party. and i'm not trashing certain cultures. i'm trying to remove any passion or emotion from the argument and just make it a rational fact. the point is, once you recognize this basic philosophy, it can dramatically affect the way certain foreign policy decisions are made.